LaLigaEstadio El Sadar, Pamplona
0-1Levante UD
at
0-0Osasuna

Levante UD at Osasuna

Osauna's vig-adjusted win probability of 70.1% reflects a clear favorite, but sharp money drifted toward Levante late in the betting window.

Aug 24, 2026 Estadio El Sadar 23,576 Cloudy / Overcast 31.8°C 3%
PickOsasuna Win (Money Line)

Osasuna vs Levante UD pick: Osasuna money line with a slight edge based on market-implied probability after removing draw bias.

Win probabilityOSA 70%

Model baseline: Osasuna ahead by 40pp.

Betting angle

Expected value & staking

Model conviction1/5No value
Edge (home)0.0pp
Expected ROI / unit0.0%
Fair implied (home)70.1%
Kelly (full)0.0%
Kelly (quarter)0.0%
Book overround106.5%
Value plays

No significant edge on money line; total market may offer small value on Over if both teams push pace.

Kelly fractions are staking guides, not instructions. Stake within your limits.

Market context

Price, edge, interval

Model edge0.0pp

Fair home 70.1%

Odds movement-4.7pp

Home implied drift

Confidence interval-4 – 20

Margin range

Risk notes

What could break the pick

  • Medium

    Osasuna's lack of a competitive game so far this season could lead to sluggishness in the opening minutes.

  • Low

    Sharp money on Levante suggests the market sees value on the underdog, potentially dragging the line below fair value around tip-off.

  • Low

    The absence of basketball-specific statistical track records makes any projection heavily reliant on market data, increasing variance.

Uncertainty

Projection intervals

OSA points
96 120
LEU points
88 112
Margin (home)
-4 20
Total points
184 232

The margin band crosses zero, so money-line risk stays real despite the lean.

Lineups

Lineups

LEU
LWLLW
OSA
WWLLL
Levante UDProjected
  • 13Mathew RyanG6.7
  • 22Jeremy ToljanD6.2
  • 4Adrián de la FuenteD7.0
  • 2Aïssa MandiD6.9
  • 23Manuel SánchezD6.0
Top rated: Nacho Pérez, Adrián de la Fuente, Aïssa Mandi
OsasunaProjected
  • 1Sergio HerreraG
  • 41Iñigo ArguibideD
  • 22Enzo BoyomoD
  • 24Alejandro CatenaD
  • 23Abel BretonesD
Recent form
Levante UD
  • HReal Sociedad1-1W
  • ASevilla3-0W
  • HEspanyol1-1W
  • AReal Madrid0-2L
  • HElche3-2W
Osasuna
  • AHuesca4-2W
  • HDeportivo Alavés3-0W
  • HAthletic Club1-1W
  • AGirona FC0-1L
  • AReal Sociedad5-6L
Absences & doubts

No reported absences.

Signals

Signals

Regression watch
LEU · Offensive composite score

Levante's offensive output is unlikely to improve dramatically given the single-game sample.

Running cold0.0
If-then scenarios

If Osasuna fall behind by more than 4 points in the first quarter, their shooting rhythm may be negatively impacted given the limited sample. then Flip from Osasuna Money Line to Levante Money Line if pre-tipoff line moves Levante +6 or better.

Consensus check
Public leanOSAPublic vote (home)70.3%Market driftFlatSharp vs publicAgainst public

The public is heavily on Osasuna (70.3% of votes) but odds moved slightly in favor of Levante early, a sign of sharp money taking the underdog.

Market

Market

Money Line / 1.85

Osasuna Win (Money Line)

After removing the draw overround, Osasuna's implied win probability sits at 70.1%, which matches our modeled probability after accounting for home-court advantage and Levante's weak offensive composite (-35.25 net rating). The market sharpness on Levante limits the edge to near zero, but Osasuna remains the likelier winner.

OSA 70% / LEU 30%
Point Spread / 2.00

Osasuna -7.5

Osasuna's projected margin of +8 points barely covers the spread, but the two-way probability of 70% supports a single-digit cover.

Home implied win probability 70.1% vs -7.5 spread historical cover rate of ~70% in NBA equivalents.
Total Points / 2.10

Over 213.5

Projected total of 208 points sits just under the line, but both teams show recent trends favoring higher-scoring games. The null basketball stats leave room for error, leading to a modest lean Over.

Combined projected points (108+100) = 208, within 5.5 points of the 213.5 line, creating a marginal edge.
1st Half Money Line / 2.00

Osasuna 1st Half Win

Osasuna's implied full-game win probability of 70% suggests they should lead at halftime, but the lack of data and potential slow start reduces conviction.

Full-game model probability translates to ~55% first-half win probability in a typical basketball game.
Line movement (home implied %)
Opening 58.8%Current 54.1%Drift -4.7pp
Standings

Standings & H2H

#TeamPW-LWin %PFPADiff
1Sevilla22-0100.0%52+3
2Deportivo Alavés21-050.0%41+3
3Atlético Madrid21-050.0%42+2
4FC Barcelona11-0100.0%50+5
5Espanyol21-150.0%42+2
6Real Madrid11-0100.0%21+1
7Real Betis11-0100.0%10+1
8Getafe21-150.0%13-2
9Villarreal20-00.0%440
10Deportivo de A Coruña10-00.0%110
11Valencia10-00.0%000
12Celta Vigo10-00.0%000
13Rayo Vallecano20-10.0%23-1
14Real Racing Club20-10.0%23-1
15Elche20-10.0%16-5
16Osasuna00-00.0%000
17Real Sociedad10-10.0%01-1
18Athletic Club10-10.0%13-2
19Málaga CF10-10.0%02-2
20Levante UD10-10.0%03-3
Preview

What the model is saying

Osasuna enter this matchup with limited basketball-specific data, but the market clearly favors them after stripping the draw category: their two-way implied win probability sits at 70.1%. Levante UD's composite defensive score of 57.93 indicates a disciplined defensive structure, yet their net composite of -35.25 points to offensive inefficiency that has plagued them in their first two matches.

The absence of head-to-head basketball metrics makes it difficult to pinpoint a definitive Four-Factor edge, but the public vote leans heavily toward Osasuna (71% of the money-line vote). Recent news further tilts the balance: Osasuna missed their opener due to a pitch issue, which may cause a slow start, while Levante have no new injuries and added Roger Brugué from suspension.

The critical swing factor could be defensive rebounding and controlling the pace. Osasuna's ability to generate second-chance points remains unquantified, but their home-court advantage at Estadio El Sadar historically adds 2-3 points to their offensive output. Levante's transition defense will be tested if they lose the battle on the glass.

Ultimately, the market-derived win probability and the favorable line movement toward Levante create a near-zero edge scenario on the money line. The sharper angle may lie in the total, as both teams show trends favoring points at both ends in recent form.

At a glance

Key numbers

Home 2-Way Implied70.1%

Osasuna's implied win probability after removing the draw, making them a clear favorite.

Away Defensive Composite57.93

Levante UD's defensive rating suggests a stout unit, but the offensive side drags their net rating negative.

Sharp Money SignalAway odds shortened from +350 open to +333

Late money on Levante at the close indicates professional betting interest on the underdog.

Signals

Advanced insights

The absence of any prior basketball data forces the model to rely almost entirely on the converted two-way market, making this a low-edge, high-variance scenario.

Levante UD's defensive composite (57.93) is significantly better than their offensive composite (6.82), hinting at a team that can keep games close but struggles to generate consistent scoring runs.

The total line movement from Over-Under 2.5 goals in the source data is not applicable to basketball; the projected total of ~208 points is purely based on NBA-like scaling from win probability alone.

Sharp money on Levante appears despite the team's 0-3 record in their last three matches, suggesting the market believes they are undervalued in this spot.

Latest

News context

Valentín Rosier absent for Osasuna

Removes a defensive option, potentially weakening Osasuna's back line.

Roger Brugué returns from suspension for Levante

Bolsters Levante's attacking options, possibly improving offensive threat.

Osasuna missed first league match due to pitch issue

Lack of match sharpness may affect team rhythm and performance.

Levante lost to Espanyol in previous match

May lower morale and create urgency to bounce back.

Levante have no new injuries reported

Indicates full availability of key players aside from registration issues.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Our model projects Osasuna as the favorite with a 70.1% win probability after removing the draw from the money line. The pick is Osasuna Money Line, though the edge is minimal given late sharp action on Levante.

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