New York Liberty ML backed on net efficiency gap and H2H dominance for +6pp edge.
WNBABarclays Center, Brooklyn
15-25Chicago Sky
at
24-16New York Liberty
Chicago Sky at New York Liberty
The Liberty's +2.98 ppg net rating vs the Sky's -3.00 gives them a 5.98-point edge, the largest in the game.
Aug 29, 2026 Barclays Center 18,732 Clear sky 23.3°C 0%
Result
Final score
CHS66
FinalNYL85
Projected: CHS 83 – 96 NYLPick hit · New York Liberty Win
Model baseline: New York Liberty ahead by 68pp.
Betting angle
Expected value & staking
Model conviction
4/5
Value plays
Liberty ML provides a +6pp edge over fair implied, but expected ROI is small (0.8%).
Kelly fractions are staking guides, not instructions. Stake within your limits.
Market context
Price, edge, interval
Fair home 78.0%
Home implied drift
Margin range
Risk notes
What could break the pick
- Medium
Kamilla Cardoso's 24-point performance in a recent game shows Chicago's scoring potential, which could push the total over 180.5 if she replicates that output.
- Low
The Liberty's 8-2 H2H record is dominant, but they have lost two of those meetings, and the Sky's recent form (3-2 in last 5) suggests they are capable of an upset.
- Low
The projected total of 179 points is only 1.5 points below the line, so a few extra possessions could push it over, making the Under a lean rather than a strong play.
Uncertainty
Projection intervals
NYL points
85 – 107
CHS points
72 – 94
Margin (home)
0 – 26
Total points
163 – 195
Lineups
Lineups
CHS
LLLLL
NYL
WWWLL
30Azurá StevensFC
10Kamilla CardosoC
12Sydney TaylorG
22Courtney VanderslootG
9Natasha CloudG
20Sabrina IonescuG
30Breanna StewartF
35Jonquel JonesC
18Pauline AstierG
13Leonie FiebichF
Recent form
Chicago Sky
- AToronto Tempo68-85L
- HAtlanta Dream75-82L
- AIndiana Fever106-114L
- HNew York Liberty95-96L
- ADallas Wings92-93L
New York Liberty
- AAtlanta Dream104-90W
- HWashington Mystics86-64W
- AChicago Sky96-95W
- HWashington Mystics83-86L
- ALos Angeles Sparks97-98L
Absences & doubts
No reported absences.
Signals
Signals
If-then scenarios
If the spread line moves to Liberty -7.5 or lower by tip-off then Flip the Spread tip from Liberty -9.5 to Sky +9.5
If the total points line drops below 180 then Consider the Over 180.5 instead of the Under
Consensus check
Public leanNYLPublic vote (home)80.5%Market driftNYLSharp vs publicWith public
Public heavily favors the Liberty at 80.5%, and the small market drift towards Liberty confirms the consensus, leaving no contrarian edge.
Market
Market
New York Liberty Win
The Liberty's net efficiency gap of 5.98 ppg and dominant 8-2 H2H record provide a +6pp edge over the vig-adjusted market price.
NYL 84% / CHS 16%New York Liberty -9.5
Projected margin of 13 points gives Liberty comfortable cover against the -9.5 spread.
Net efficiency gap of 5.98 ppg.Under 180.5
Combined projected total of 179 points falls below the 180.5 line, supported by the Liberty's strong defense.
Total points averaged 177 in last 10 games.New York Liberty
Liberty have won the first half in 7 of the last 8 meetings against the Sky.
First half winner: 7/8 H2H.Line movement (home implied %)
Standings
Standings & H2H
#TeamPW-LWin %PFPADiff
1Indiana Fever4026-1465.0%38803638+242
2Atlanta Dream3925-1464.1%35433347+196
3New York Liberty4024-1660.0%35933474+119
4Washington Mystics4024-1660.0%33133321-8
5Chicago Sky4015-2537.5%34673587-120
6Toronto Tempo4011-2927.5%34493751-302
7Connecticut Sun3910-2925.6%30873414-327
Preview
What the model is saying
The New York Liberty's net efficiency gap — +2.98 points per game versus the Chicago Sky's -3.00 — is the decisive factor in this matchup, giving them a 5.98-point edge that looms large over the 180.5 total. This season-long advantage has been a consistent driver of Liberty wins.
The Sky have shown flashes of life with three wins in their last five, but they have lost the first half in seven of the last eight meetings against the Liberty. The Liberty's offense (89.8 ppg) should exploit the Sky's defense (89.7 ppg allowed), leading to a comfortable margin.
Kamilla Cardoso has been a bright spot for Chicago, averaging 24 points and 13 rebounds in recent games, but the Liberty's star trio of Ionescu, Stewart, and Jones provides a counter that is difficult to contain. The Liberty's depth and experience give them a clear edge.
The Liberty's dominance in the first half (7/8 H2H) suggests they will control the game early, leading to a comfortable victory. The Under 180.5 is also supported by the combined 179-point projection.
At a glance
Key numbers
Liberty's biggest edge over Sky
Liberty have dominated the series
Liberty control the early game
Recent form supports the edge
Signals
Advanced insights
The Liberty's net efficiency gap of 5.98 ppg is the largest edge in the game, and it has been consistent over the season.
The H2H first half trend (Liberty 7-8) suggests a strong start, which aligns with the Liberty's overall dominance.
The Sky's best player Kamilla Cardoso has averaged 24 points and 13 rebounds in recent games, but the Liberty's frontcourt of Stewart and Jones can neutralize her.
The public vote is overwhelmingly on the Liberty, but the market has not overreacted, leaving a small +EV opportunity on the ML.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
The New York Liberty are expected to win with an 84% probability, backed by a net efficiency gap of 5.98 points per game and an 8-2 head-to-head record.
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